Implementasi Metode Fuzzy Time Series Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Ekspor Produk Kopi Dari Indonesia

Wardah, Siti and Sundari, Susanti (2023) Implementasi Metode Fuzzy Time Series Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Ekspor Produk Kopi Dari Indonesia. Industrika, 7 (2). pp. 127-134. ISSN 2579-5732

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Abstract

The current era of trade opens opportunities for trade in Indonesian coffee in the international market, so it is necessary to make the right decisions for the development of coffee in Indonesia on an export basis. This development needs to begin with predicting the number of future coffee exports. The method that can use to predict the number of Indonesian coffee exports to various countries is the Fuzzy Time Series method. The Fuzzy Time Series method, a forecasting technique, utilizes fuzzy sets as the basis for the prediction process. In this study, the forecasting stages include defining Xmax and Xmin, determining how many and how long class intervals are, defuzzification and definition of fuzzy sets, fuzzification of data on the number of coffee exports, determination of fuzzy logic relationships (FLR), formation of fuzzy logic groups (FLRG) relationships, defuzzification, and perform forecasting calculations. By using the Fuzzy Time Series Method, the results of forecasting Indonesia's coffee exports for the following year are 376371.3 tons of coffee products to export so that exporters can see this opportunity.

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